Poisson football score calculator

Home expected goals Away expected goals Home goals for score Away goals for score Over or under line

Example result

Expected goals of 1.50 and 1.00 produce about 12.31% for a 1-1 score.

What this calculator answers

Use expected goals for each team to estimate the probability of a selected correct score and the chance of an over or under total. It treats team goal counts as independent Poisson variables.

Formula and worked example

Formula: P(k goals) = e to the power of minus lambda multiplied by lambda to the power k divided by k factorial. Correct score probability multiplies home and away goal probabilities.

With home expected goals 1.50 and away expected goals 1.00, home scoring one is 33.47 percent and away scoring one is 36.79 percent. The 1-1 score probability is about 12.31 percent.

Checks before using the result

• Entering recent goals scored as if they are an expected-goals estimate.
• Assuming team goal counts are fully independent in every match.
• Rounding small probabilities too early.

When the calculation does not apply

It is a simplified statistical model, not a match forecast. It does not account for team news, red cards, style changes, tactical interaction or price margin.

Keep the number in context

A calculator shows the arithmetic. It doesn't tell you whether the price fits your read of the outcome or your budget. Decide the stake before you enter it. Check the market rules. Keep essential money out of it entirely.

Cross-check on a second tool. The calculator hub, Free bet SNR or Accumulator cover the same numbers from a different angle. Same price conventions, so a decimal price in one is a decimal price in the other.

Read the football hub if you're new to the formats. Two minutes.

Reading a rounded result

Money is rounded to two decimals here. A real settlement applies its own rounding sequence, which can differ. Keep the original inputs written down if you're going to check the number later.

Unclear about an input? Find the stated market term. Don't guess. A quick sanity check: change one input by a small amount and see whether the result moves the way you expect.

That doesn't validate the market. It can flag a reversed sign, a mis-entered price format or a duplicated stake. Use the number to understand the arithmetic. It's not a reason to ignore a limit you set in advance.